The reason Donald Trump is president may be the exact same reason he isn’t 2 years from now.
Let’s be clear; I’m not predicting a Trump loss in 2020; I’m showing you, using facts and logic how he could lose.
In 2016, America faced its’ worst presidential choice of modern history; the two most unpopular people ever were what had to be decided upon.
As is always the case, we learned more about the election in the months afterwards. Just as we now know there was never a youth-vote turnout for President Obama, we also know that Trump wasn’t elected on a wave of MAGA hat wearing supporters; quite the opposite. Trump won because too many people who didn’t want him to be president stayed home and didn’t vote.
Trump has a solid base of 35% of the voting population. They will never leave him, even if, as he said during the campaign, he opens fire on Madison Avenue and randomly starts killing people. He has also never once had an approval rating above 45%. In other words, he’s not popular. His followers are extraordinarily passionate, but they are absolutely in the minority. Trumpsters don’t like those facts and will lie to you about them
Trump supporters insist that the majority of the country supports him but that too many people are afraid to admit it out loud because it’s not politically correct. This was a neat yarn, until we had the facts. This story arises from the 2016 election; not one single poll anywhere, ever, showed Trump winning. Therefore, goes the MAGA logic, people were lying to pollsters and he actually has wide support. The truth, however, is that the reason Trump won in 2016 is those very polls and his very presence. In study after study in the states that pushed Trump over the top (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida) it is clear and consistent; Hillary had much more support (and still does to this day), but those supporters simply stayed home. They simply didn’t believe it was possible that Trump would or could win, so why bother voting? And they didn’t; but trump’s passionate 35% was absolutely going to show up and pushed him over the top.
Those facts, by the way, are why he’s so strident about the infamous wall. He and the White House see the same data and know that Trump’s road to victory in 2020 is keeping that passionate 35% locked down and eager to re-elect him.
The problem in 2020 however, may be a complacency that is already setting in.
As the Democratic Party lurches further and further to the left and embraces childish and idiotic policies like the Green New Deal and Socialism, many Trumpsters say things like “America will never vote for that,” and “They’re guaranteeing Trump’s re-election.”
No so fast, MAGA-heads.
There is a strong and passionate appetite for Socialism in America. It has been growing for decades and is stronger now than in the last 100 years.
There is an overwhelming belief that man-made Climate change is real and is an impending disaster for the globe. While most American’s don’t rank it as a “top 10 issue,” when you ask if it’s real and imminent and ominous, between 66 and 75% say “yes.” If a party or candidate runs on the issue, it will elevate its’ importance, just like Trump did so with immigration in 2016.
And just like Trump in 2016, if people snidely walk around believing that America will never vote for a Socialist platform and therefore stay home in 2020, they’ll wake up on January 20, 2021 to America’s first socialist president since FDR…and all hell will break loose.