Many of you have written into the show the last many weeks wanting to know if President Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020. Some of you are asking because you’re terrified at the prospect, while others can’t imagine him not being president through 2024.
Despite the fact that Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, in less than three months we’re going to have a very good idea of where this country stands.
In 2016, we now know that candidate Trump SHOULD have been running for President against candidate Bernie Sanders. The democrats rigged their primary to make sure Hillary got the nod, instead, and the rest, as they say, is history. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41850798
What’s sad is that such a showdown would have been exactly what this country needs…a true debate between Capitalism and Socialism in America…and we’re headed for it anyway, starting this November.
I realize that “midterm” elections aren’t exciting or sexy for many people historically, but these are extraordinary times and 2018 is different; as different as the entire nation’s political sphere has been since Trump swarmed into office. What happens in November, when the entire House of Representatives and 1/3rd of the Senate are on the ballot will potentially tell us a lot about what will happen in 2020.
Both political parties are gambling their futures on diametrically opposed assumptions and hopes, and one of them is going to be devastated; and forced to re-evaluate what they will do in 2020. It really boils down as follows:
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS ASSUMING AND HOPING THE FOLLOWING:
- Its’ base is energized: There is a belief amongst Democrats that if many of their voters hadn’t been complacent in 2016, Hillary would be president. The thinking is as follows; Hillary was a shoe-in, and many people stayed home rather than being bothered to vote, and that’s why Trump won. Now, in a bid to get rid of him at all costs, control of the House of Representatives MUST be returned to the Democrats so that they can immediately begin impeachment hearings which will either remove him from office or cripple his presidency until he can be voted out in 2020
- Trump’s approval rating has never really gone above 45%, meaning the majority of Americans have never supported him. And unlike previous midterm elections, Trump is “essentially,” on the ballot because there’s so much on the line
- Trump literally stole the election and is in the pocket of Russia. He rigged 2016 and he rigged a special election in Ohio last week with the help of Russia and America loathes the man. (Of course, the safety net to this argument is that if the Democrats lose in November, they’ll just say the election was illegitimate and blame Russia). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSsjb8W5Atg
- The economy is only booming for the top 5% and “real America,” isn’t feeling any of it. A report released this weekend shows still no increase in wages, while the rest of the economy is on fire. If it’s all about the economy, the middle class (what’s left of it) is ready to go in a new direction. http://thehill.com/policy/finance/401341-wages-drop-despite-economic-boom
- Historically, presidents almost always lose seats in congress in their off-year elections
- Independents that did vote for Trump have buyer’s remorse and are embarrassed by him. So much so, that they want to vote Democrats into control of congress to, at the very least, slow down his agenda.
- There is finally a thirst for true progressive, socialist policies in America. Thirty years of slowly altering and preparing multiple generations for such a reality has arrived and now is the time to implement policies of universal health care, free college, a guaranteed live-able wage and/or Universal income, and an America with no borders.
- To that end, the youth vote will finally arrive this cycle. Historically, they never actually show up and never have, including the last time they were certain they would, Obama’s election of 2008, which showed a statistically irrelevant increase which immediately dissipated in 2012. This year is different, and between their enormous approval of Socialism and their disdain for Trump and his lack of action on gun violence and school shootings in the wake of Parkland, they will show up this time
Again, those are the working thoughts of Democrats, not me. In contrast, here’s where the hearts and minds of Republicans are.
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS ASSUMING AND HOPING THE FOLLOWING:
- Its’ base is energized: The people who voted Trump into office are not about to let up now. They finally feel as though they have some power, control, and say over their country and they will not stay home even though his name is not on the ballot. In other words, Trump is “essentially,” on the ballot because there’s so much on the line if they want their court justices, a wall, and any chance at ending Obamacare
- It’s the economy stupid. In the end, Americans vote with their pocketbook and, right or wrong, they credit whoever is in the White House when times are better, and times are better now than they have been in 20 years. Independents don’t want that momentum stopped by a congress that will impede continued policies to further that growth.
- Polls are meaningless, as they were in 2016. Not one poll got that election right, why should we believe anything has changed? Lots of people who support Trump, most notably Independents, are simply not willing to say so out-loud, but they will in the ballot box.
- America is not ready for Socialism and today’s Democratic party has fully and loudly embraced it, and that will scare average Americans and energize the red, white, and blue-blooded traditional Americans who don’t like to hear about free-everything and disbanding ICE. Independents who may have buyers’ remorse will hold their nose and choose Trump over Socialism.
- The youth vote is a wash…there are as many young people of “traditional values,” as there are of progressive values who will show up, and their effect will be minimal and off-set.
- America is strong again on the world stage and doesn’t get pushed around. After 8 years of Obama apologizing and 8 other years of Bush huffing and puffing but never blowing anyone’s house down, Americans love being the big dog and don’t care if other countries don’t like us, they just want to be respected.
- Americans’ of all ideology are disgusted by the war on persons associated with Trump, including people being encouraged to find and follow and intimidate members of the administration. Refusing to be cowed, they will rise and stand with Trump, even if they don’t agree with some, much, or all of what he says
ANALYSIS (WITHOUT PREDICTIONS):
It really boils down to a basic question that will be answered first in November, and perhaps ultimately, in 2020; Is America ready to fundamentally change as a nation? The Democrats are banking on income inequality that makes far too many Americans feel left behind and hopeless, combined with 3 generations of Socialism being hailed as the Utopia it always is (until it’s implemented and ultimately fails). 40 years of political correctness and “ hate America first,” has produced a large number of Americans who believe that America is the problem, not the solution. All of that, in conjunction with pandering to minority voters has placed the Democratic party in a position to where they have abandoned all principles that made this Bill Clinton’s party. Christ, Clinton couldn’t get elected as a Democrat now if he tried. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/at-netroots-nation-democratic-white-house-hopefuls-balance-messages-of-unity-rebellion/2018/08/03/223ddec2-9750-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html?utm_term=.c8c9d68e2d02
Trump and many begrudging Republicans are betting that all of the noise about everything that’s wrong with America is the vocal minority, and that they have captured the hearts and minds of the majority. Because of Trump’s style and numerous missteps, people don’t line up en masse behind Trump (other than 33% of the country who believe he’s the second coming of Christ and will never leave him), but they will happily (and quietly) support him and vote for him if, for no other reason, to preserve the America they love.
In November, we’re going to get our first look at whether or not traditional America is dead. If the Democrats win, they’re going to double down and nominate someone of Elizabeth Warren’s ilk and really take Socialism out for a spin. Meanwhile, the Republicans will be twisting themselves into pretzels trying to figure out if they distance themselves from Trump and what they can do to hold on to power. Conversely, if the Republicans win in November, it will be cast as shocking and, more importantly “suspect,” (read: Russia meddling). The likeliness that the Democrats use that as a wake-up call and move to the middle by nominating someone like Joe Biden, Senators Mark Warren, or Joe Manchin, or Montana Governor Steve Bullock, is hard to imagine. More likely, they’ll say what they’ve been saying for a decade; Obama didn’t go far enough to the left, Hillary wasn’t far enough to the left, and we, despite running on socialism in November, didn’t go far enough to the left. In that case, look for something truly kooky to happen in 2020. On one hand, they might caravan to Chicago and literally beg Oprah to run, realizing that only her name and charisma can bring down Trump. On the other hand, they may cryogenically resurrect Stalin and run his ass.