We have been discussing recently the art of breaking down the complex into the simple so that people can understand it.
For example; what does it mean when Donald Trump says he’s going to put a tariff on China? Put simply, it means that we would tax/charge the Chinese for every product they shipped to America to sell. In turn, the Chinese would pass that cost onto us, the consumers, but they would also be worried that we would stop consuming their goods. Potentially, Trump has no intention of actually implementing such a tariff, but believes that just the threat of it is enough to scare the Chinese to the negotiating table about other things.
Is there more to it than that? Of course there is, but that simple explanation is enough to inform people and allow them the opportunity to rub their chin and say “I want to learn more about this,” or “that sounds like it has potential,” or “that sounds like it could really be painful to the American consumer,” or “I am so bored with this already, I just realized I don’t really care what it means.”
With that as the backdrop, let us simplify one of the most convoluted topics of our day as follows:
On Friday evening, before I went to bed, I checked the hourly forecast for my zip code on multiple websites. With very minor anomalies, all of them predicted that a rain storm was moving into our area imminently and it would begin pouring rain at 3AM Saturday and continue through noon.
From noon through the remainder of Saturday, we’d have partly cloudy skies until Sunday morning when another rainstorm would arrive at 6AM.
Six hours later I awoke at 3:30 AM and took the dogs outside for a bathroom trip to see totally dry ground. I logged into the weather sites, assuming the storm was imminent, and saw that now the pouring rain would be starting at 2PM on SUNDAY. Saturday would be cloudy with light rain starting at 10AM and showers off and on until 3PM. That’s quite a change in just 6 hours.
Armed with that knowledge, I got dressed, grabbed my flashlight and decided to take advantage of the calm before the storm and take the dogs for a walk. Nellie, the white German Shepherd and I went out first for a very pleasant and dry 20-minute walk. We returned home, I strapped Shep into his harness and leash and we strode out of the garage to immediately feel large rain drops falling on our heads, which quickly turned into a steady rain (that lasted for 2 hours). Shep’s walk was over, and weather forecasters had once again been deemed stupid and incompetent.
On Saturday evening the forecast remained identical…strong rain beginning at 2PM Sunday. On Sunday morning at 4AM I strode out of the house with Nellie confident in our ability to get a good brisk walk in, since we were 10 hours away from rain. We took 5 steps before the rain started. While the rain stopped 30 minutes later and we were able to get our walks in at that time, I couldn’t help but laugh at the downpour that had just occurred while every forecast online insisted I was under mostly clear skies with 0% chance of precipitation at that moment in time. At 10AM Sunday morning, the next downpour was changed to begin not at 2PM but at 4PM with only cloudy skies until then…at Noon Sunday the next downpour was changed to begin at 6PM not at 2PM or 4PM with only cloudy skies until then…and so I strode confidently out my door with Shep in tow at 1:20PM on Sunday after the Panthers had beaten the Seahawks and before the Broncos/Steelers game began. At 1:33PM Shep and I were as far from home as possible and it began to pour…not rain, pour. We ran all the way home cursing weather forecasters who are the most inept, incompetent “scientists” on Earth, and yet we are literally placing the future of our country and its commerce in their hands.
Weather forecasts are based on computer models. Put simply, we, as humans, create programs based on our limited understanding of how the climate works using historical patterns to predict what will happen in the future. That is, quite literally and simply, how a weather forecast is created. We look at satellite photos, see storms gathering, look at the jet stream pattern of winds as it is currently, and then, using our limited knowledge and what a computer programmed with that knowledge says, to predict everything from storms to hurricanes. And, we are incredibly, pathetically bad at it. More hurricane scares and warnings have occurred in the last decade than have hurricanes. We evacuated Houston a few years ago for a storm that never came. Two winters ago, a monumental rain storm was predicted for California’s west coast to the point that schools and businesses announced closings before the storm ever made landfall. The storm, by the way, arrived, but was a non-event. The biggest story of the day was what a bunch of scared pansies we had all become to be afraid of rain before it even arrived, only to discover when it did arrive, that we had seen far worse.
Computer models, based on our limited human knowledge are the entire basis for the Global Climate Warming Change movement. We input what we think we know about the planet’s billion-year history as it relates to atmosphere, climate and temperature, and then we input what we think we know about what is happening today so that the almighty computer will forecast where we’re headed. Despite their complete and total ineptness at predicting the weather in a very specific part of the country 6 hours in the future, we are supposed to believe that they know exactly what the entire globes’ climate is going to look like in 50, let alone 20 years.
Is there more to it than that? Of course there is, but that very simple analogy should at the very least cause everyone to pause.
Of course scientists overwhelmingly concur on their findings…they’re the ones who created, use, and live by the very system that is puking out the results. Just as doctors for decades believed shocking people into sanity was the only way to cure the mentally ill were limited by their limited lack of understanding and knowledge, so to our today’s most arrogant scientists.
If you must take the argument further, truly take a look at the statistics that are shoved down your throat in an attempt to prove that the dire predictions are coming true. Bear in mind that there is a difference between the Earth’s core temperature and atmospheric temperature and take note that those who are invested in Global Climate Warming Change cite only the one that makes them look smart. If you Google “The Earth is actually cooling,” you will find endless stories documenting this truth and reams of charts, graphs and facts. If you want your eyes to glaze over, here is just one such site: http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783
To be clear, I am not a Climate Change denier. In fact, I whole heartedly agree that the climate changes, for I have seen it with my very own eyes throughout my entire life.
What I do deny is that we have any God Damned idea what is happening or why it happens when it comes to weather patterns and what the future truly holds for us as it relates to Mother Nature. Further, I deny that we should react to theory when we see very clearly how badly we are at this. I challenge a college student to write a paper in which they document the horrendous inaccuracy of things as simple as 7-day forecasts and then challenge the notion that is we can’t predict our weather 6 hours from now, we have no business predicting it 6 decades from now. Bear in mind, you will get an “F,” on that paper because you will be challenging dogma, but at least you’ll be an intellectually honest human being.
