Our buddy Mike, the fear mongering mathematician is back…in fact, he never left. In last week’s soapbox, I reprinted Mike’s email using his version of “math,” to “prove” (in his mind) that America is doomed thanks to the Coronavirus, an absurdly non-threatening virus to the globe. Since then, he has emailed multiple times using specious, irresponsible, and reprehensible statistical models to try to prove his point.
What I am going to do is print out Mike’s email that I have reprinted for you below. When this is all over, I am going to frame his email and place it next to the statistics that show that the Coronavirus, in the end, was not only not as infectious nor deadly as the flu, but was, in fact, nothing more than a blip on the radar similar to SARS, West Nile, Bird and Swine Flu and Y2K.
The good news for Mike is that he will be regarded as a hero. As he says in his email “Short of some drastic change, cases in the US are and WILL CONTINUE (to) grow exponentially.” To whit, America has literally shut down. When this virus that was never going to threaten our society doesn’t ultimately threaten our society, the Mike’s of the world will be cheered for sounding the alarm and forcing us all indoors while destroying our economy in the name of a non-threat.
I have neither the time nor energy nor inclination to exhaustively explain how absurd it is to use global statistics that have been refuted by endless healthcare professionals. I will merely offer a couple of tidbits before allowing you to read Chicken Little’s email:
- On Saturday morning (3/14/2020) at 10:04 AM PDT, the Surgeon General of the United States, Doctor Jerome Adams, said “99% of all people who contract the coronavirus will recover.” That statement alone betrays all of the howls of a mortality rate of 2-3%, which has been completely discredited.
- Additionally, watch how the most educated on this are behaving. They are standing close, touching one another, touching their own faces, and still shaking hands. Because they know this is nothing. Period.
- On Saturday morning (3/14/2020) at 10:43 AM PDT, Doctor Shoshana R. Ungerleider, of Sutter Health San Francisco (and a world renowned hospitalist) reported that the stats from China are clear: “10-39 year olds have a mortality rate of .02%…the death rate for those over 60 is 3.8% and over 80 is 15%.” Bear in mind that influenza, the flu, has a mortality rate of 0.1%….02% is exponentially lower, and the stats prove what those of us that are sane already know; the older and health compromised are at most risk. And by the way, not to be flippant, but what’s the mortality rate of those over 80 every single day they wake up? Considering the average lifespan in America is 78 years, it sure seems like anything over 80 is a blessing, regardless of the dreaded Coronavirus.
Here is the best analogy I could think of to explain what Mike does below:
- Mike got his usual salary of $1000 in January and March
- In February, Mike got a $5000 bonus
- Mike has been informed that there will be no more bonuses or salary increases for the remainder of the year
Normal, reasonable people who are planning a budget for the year would ignore the $5000 bonus and use it to either pay off debt or place it in savings. They would then plan their spending for the year based on their $1000 monthly salary.
What Mike has done is say “hey! I made $8000 in three months! That means I make $2666 per month so I can spend $2665 per month!!!!”.
It’s literally that simple. China and South Korea are done with this after 8 weeks. Morons will tell you it’s because they did what America is now doing, which is provably false. Italy is 25% elderly and Iran is a disaster as a country. When you eliminate the outliers, we already know the coronavirus is not deadly. At all, whatsoever, to, as the Surgeon General said, at least 99% of the American population.
With that, I give you Mike and his fear mongering, moronic math, unedited:
From: Mike <REDACTED>
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 10:08 AM
To: RAD Radio <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: Covid19 Math 2.0, 1 Week Later
Original Extrapolation, 3/7/2020:
“Current data indicate Covid 19 coronavirus cases double every four days.
There are currently 340 known cases in the US.
IF…that number doubles every four days, in 80 days there will be 267 Million cases in the US.”
Analysis:
Today, (even with limited testing) there are 1268 cases, 3.7 times the number quoted in last week’s email. Exponential growth is underway.
Short of some drastic change, cases in the US are and WILL CONTINUE grow exponentially. I put the data in chart format so you can see what this looks like. Whether the “Doubling-Days” are a low of three or a high of seven or eight, the result is the same: massive illnesses and deaths, the timing only changes by a few weeks.
Re: Your death rate claims of 0.8%
The death rate cannot be computer using the total number of deaths divided by the total number of cases. This is due to the LAG TIME between illness and death. To find the death rate, look at the “Resolved” case data. Did the case result in recovery or death?
Total recovered + Total deaths = Total number of cases resolved. Data from Johns Hopkins University (link below) indicate 74,867 resolved cases with 69,779 recovered and 5088 dead. This equates to a death rate of 6.8%.
This means the death rate of covid19 is 68 times for deadly than the flu.
China was able to contain the spread by locking down their society in the affected areas, chasing people off the streets with drones equipped with cameras and megaphones, massive testing and case tracking and spraying the closed streets with disinfectant. They also had more hospital beds per capita, more protective gear and aggressively built hospitals to treat those infected.
The US has already given up on containment, we are not prepared for adequate testing, we do not have enough protective gear, and we are not building more hospital capacity. Our infection and death rate will be higher than China.
Commentary:
You have a heavy influence on a large group of people. They look to you as a source of knowledge and as a trusted source.
You are in the “denial” stage of “situational adaptability”, a normal psychological stage when dealing with change (similar to dealing with trauma).
However, with the evidence, data and science that has emerged since the writing of my original email, you have not adapted to the new reality. In fact, you are publicly doubling-down on stupid. Your credibility is at stake here, but your ego is keeping you stuck in the past.
Many or your audience will get sick. Many will die.
Many who listen to you as a trusted source of information will be disenfranchised.
Your sponsors will have employees, friends and loved ones who get sick and die.
Economic recession/depression is on the doorstep. Your sponsors will suffer losses. They will suffer. They will cut advertising budgets.
Yet you continue to advocate denial and brag about your new Corvette.
Pride cometh before the fall, my friend.
Mike
