There is little to no chance that we will have a winner of the presidential election announced tonight. There are rumors that Trump will declare victory as a way to sway public opinion, but absent multiple media outlets making any announcement, nothing is official.
Therefore, as results come in, here is what I will be watching:
BATTLEGROUND STATES: Of the 7 battleground states, ( Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) Georgia and Michigan have made the most dramatic changes to how they count votes and we should have their results this evening. Just because one candidate wins both of those states doesn’t mean that same candidate will win the other 5, but I will be looking at the margin of victory. If the same candidate wins both Georgia and Michigan and, in each case, the margin of victory is 3% or more…that candidate may have broken through and may be on their way to victory
IOWA: The Des Moines Register, THE bell-weather poll in that state for decades said on Sunday that Harris was up by 3%. That is unthinkable. When we get Iowa’s results, if Trump wins by 5% or more, it means nothing other than things are as they should be…Trump SHOULD win Iowa by a large margin. If Harris is within 5%, or, far worse for Trump, wins the state, Trump is in a lot of trouble.
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VIRGINIA: Harris SHOULD win these states by 3% or more…if she doesn’t, Harris is in trouble
FLORIDA AND TEXAS: Trump should KILL in these states by large margins…if he doesn’t, he may be in trouble
MINNESOTA: Once a swing state, it’s now solidly blue…if Harris doesn’t win by 5% or more, she could be in trouble
TURNOUT: We will begin to get turnout numbers early…look at the who…if women are showing up in much larger numbers than men, Trump is almost certainly toast. If men are showing up as much or more than women, Harris is likely done.
